Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the 'Limits of potential returns' includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the 'Limits of potential returns', the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the 'Risks to realisation of returns' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI's assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the 'Limits of potential returns' are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the 'Limits of potential returns', it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the 'Risks to the realisation of returns' category, the market elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody's Investor Services' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI's long-term risk rating.
Table Of contents
Executive Summary
Table: Levels (SARbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At January 2012
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011
Table: Projected Levels (SARbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
Saudi Arabia Commercial Banking SWOT
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT
Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Regional Outlooks
Banking Sector: Regional Outlook Diverging
Islamic Finance: A Record Year Ahead
MEA Banking Sector Forecast Overview
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn)
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011)
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields
Saudi Arabia Banking Sector Outlook
Banking Sector: In Good Shape
Economic Outlook
Table: Saudi Arabia – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Protagonists
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
List Of Banks
Table: Branches Of Foreign Banks
Company Profiles
Al-Rajhi Bank
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2004-2010
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated), 2004-2009
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2004-2009
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2004-2009
National Commercial Bank
Table: Key Statistics For National Commercial Bank, 2007-2008 (SAR '000)
Samba Financial Group
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2004-2010
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated), 2004-2009
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2004-2009
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2004-2009
Riyad Bank
Saudi Arabia Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012
Saudi Arabia Balance Sheet (LCYmn), 2006-2010
Saudi Arabia Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2010
Saudi Arabia Key Ratios (%), 2006-2010
Arab National Bank
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2004-2010
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated), 2004-2009
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2004-2009
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2004-2009
Saudi Hollandi Bank
Table: Stock Market Indicator, 2004-2009
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated, 2004-2009
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated, 2004-2009
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2004-2009
Banking Sector Methodology
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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