WEATHER TRENDS INTERNATIONAL – AUGUST RETAIL WEATHER ROUNDUP (TOP 10 POSITIVES)

Retail Industry Same Store Sales results will be announced on Thursday and there are at least 10 positives for sales to come in on the higher end of very low expectations.  The International Council of Shopping Center’s Chief Economist Michael P. Niemira expects retailers to post a -3.5% to -4.0% declines for August, which is better than the -5% this Summer. 

Weather Trends International Top 10 Positives for Retailers in August

1.     Warmer August than last year, especially the Northeast, which had the hottest conditions in 3-years after coldest start to Summer in over 140 years.  Warmer Temperatures show a 78% correlation to stronger August retail sales gains. 

2.     Drier conditions in 5 of 8 U.S. regions.  Drier conditions show a 74% correlation to stronger August retail sales gains. 

3.     Consumer Confidence up to 54.1, highest in almost a year, but still well below an index of 90 which indicates average economic health and 100 which indicates strong economic growth.  The consumer confidence index shows a 30% correlation to higher retail sales gains. 

4.     Stock Market up almost 50% since March, 11-month high in August. 

5.     Gasoline prices down 29% vs year ago levels; $2.60 gallon regular gas vs $3.69 according to AAA. 

6.     New home sales results announced in August show fastest pace in over 4 years, up +32.4%.

7.     The number of tornadoes are down 43% from August last year and 32% below average resulting in fewer disruptions or lost shopping days.

8.     Slowest start to the Atlantic hurricane season in 25 years by middle August with only one weak Tropical Storm Claudette impacting Northern Florida.  Last year there were three land falling systems including the evacuation of 2 million people in the Northern Gulf for Major Hurricane Gustav.  With two fewer land falling systems, retailers can post a 1.1% higher gain due to  fewer lost shopping days.

9.     On the heels of the coldest July in 17 years for the nation as a whole, consumers saved 10% to 25% on home cooling bills giving them more discretionary spending in August.

10.  Easy comparisons to last year’s 3^rd weakest sales results in 25 years with industry SSS of +1.7%.

PRESS CONTACT:

Bill Kirk, CEO Weather Trends

(O) 610-807-3585 (C) 484-903-6887

bkirk@wxtrends.com

About Weather Trends International The global leader of actionable year-ahead business weather guidance for retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, agricultural firms, financial analysts and small business.  Clients include some of the world’s most respected and successful companies like Wal-Mart, Kohl’s, Target, AutoZone, Sears Canada, REI, Anheuser-Busch, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, SC Johnson, Reckitt Benckiser, Town Shoes, Sherwin-Williams, JP Morgan, Agway, Hershey’s and over a hundred others.  Its business centric weather solutions and understanding of how consumers respond to the weather is used throughout organizations to help "manage the weather risk”.  Utilizing technology first developed in the early 1990s, Weather Trends International’s unique statistical math based trade secret formula forecasting methodology projects temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends by day and week a year-ahead for 60,000+ locations across the globe with an industry leading 80%+ accuracy.  WTI is recipient of four business and technology awards in 2009: Winner of the Red Herring North America technology award; Winner of the American Business Award for Most Innovative Company of the Year; International Business Award Finalist and Featured Forbes Finalist for America’s Most Promising Companies.  Offices in Bethlehem, PA and Bentonville, AR.  Visit www.wxtrends.com or www.myskeye.com for more information.

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