Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field – Sunday Night - NBC
Line: Packers – 3 ½
Over/Under: 46
The oldest rivalry in football is one of the feature games from Week 1 NFL betting action. This battle goes back as far as 1923, when the first meeting resulted in a 3-0 Bears win (they covered as a 2.5-point favorite….just kidding)
This weekend’s game has a line on it of -3.5 that’s the current line at online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com).
The line actually opened at -3, but steady money has been coming in on the home team Packers, pushing the line up to -3.5. Most online sportsbooks are reporting 70 to 75% of the betting volume is Green Bay money. I don’t see that changing as we get closer to kick-off, and in fact, I think this number could reach -4.
So if you like the Packers (check below for our pick on this one) you might want to get your bet in now.
The Bears head to Lambeau having won four of the last five games in Green Bay, but note that they were blown out last year 37-3 in Week 11.
In Week 16 the Bears hosted Green Bay and turned the tables beating them 20-17 in overtime.
But this year is different, as the Packers will face a Bears team that finally has a franchise quarterback. This season the rivalry is renewed with a legitimate QB showdown as Aaron Rodgers welcomes Jay Cutler to the division. This rivalry could dominate this division for the next 10 seasons.
In 2008 Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions for an impressive passer rating of 93.8 in his first season as the Packers starter. Cutler threw for 4,526 yards, 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions last year for a passer rating of 86. Both quarterbacks have big arms and can make any throw required to move the offense.
Green Bay has more weapons for Rodgers to spread the ball around and he had a good year with this group last season. The Bears offer Cutler two very good tight ends in Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark who might be the best tight end tandem in the NFL. The wide-receiving position is average however with all-pro punt returner Devin Hester penciled in as number one and second year receiver Earl Bennett as number two. Matt Forte has a great shot to improve on his 1200-yard season in 2008 with Cutler now in the fold.
But still, edge to the Packers.
The Packers brought in defensive guru Dom Capers to run the defense. He has switched the team over to a 3-4 scheme. The defense has adjusted well in preseason but it can take some time to fully implement the change.
Former Lions coach Rod Marinelli takes over as Defensive Coordinator of the Bears. The strength of the Bears for years has been their defense. Getting DT Tommie Harris back on the field is huge for the team. Marinelli is a noted line coach and Harris has already stated that he has helped him tremendously. Both he and Brian Urlacher are looking to rebound from a sub-par 2008 season. The defensive line is average and will get pushed around. They don’t have a great pass rush other than weakside linebacker Lance Briggs, which could hurt them against the Pack. Top corner Charles Tillman is recovering from a back injury and looks good to go for the opener.
Overall, this looks pretty even, as the neither defense will be outmatched by the offense in any significant way…but the Packers do look like they can create some matchup advantages that I like.
I see Green Bay winning this game and will lay the 3 points (I’m buying the hook)
Good luck with your NFL betting this weekend.
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