Revenues for Elder Care Services to Exceed $319 Billion

Revenues for the elder care services industry (skilled nursing, home health care, social services, continuing care, and assisted living) are expected to grow 5.2 percent per year through 2016 to $319.5 billion.  Advances will be driven largely by demographic changes in light of increasing life expectancy, which is contributing to the rising number of individuals in the older population segments.  Growth will be further boosted by the large, post-World War II “baby boom” generation entering its retirement years.  Gains will also be spurred by a recovery in the economy and the housing market, enabling older adults to more easily finance their care.  Further growth will be restrained by continuing efforts at the state and federal levels to curb Medicaid and Medicare expenditures, often by either limiting reimbursements or by directing patients to less expensive forms of care.  Elder care service providers compete functionally with informal caregivers, typically family members; however, a growing number of older adults either do not have family members who are able to care for them or simply prefer using professional care.  These and other trends, including market share and product segmentation, are presented in Elder Care Services, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry market research firm.  

In 2011, skilled nursing facilities accounted for the largest share of elder care service revenues with 43 percent.  However, home and community based services (e.g., home health care, social services, assisted living) are projected to achieve faster growth.  Advances for home and community based services will be driven by continued state and federal efforts to shift Medicaid payments away from skilled nursing to more cost effective community based services.  Additionally, many older adults prefer to age in place, remaining in their homes as long as possible.  Continuing care revenues will grow strongly, benefiting from a rebound in the housing market as many older adults sell their homes to pay for the steep entry fees of continuing care facilities.

For-profit entities accounted for 66 percent of elder care service revenues in 2011, benefiting from their dominance in the large skilled nursing segment and leading position in the home health and assisted living markets as the chain and franchise business models develop.  Nonprofits (e.g., charitable organizations and government-related agencies) account for the larger share of revenue in the continuing care and social services markets.

The Freedonia Group is a leading international business research company, founded in 1985, that publishes more than 100 industry research studies annually. This industry analysis provides an unbiased outlook and a reliable assessment of an industry and includes product segmentation and demand forecasts, industry trends, demand history, threats and opportunities, competitive strategies, market share determinations and company profiles.