An index measuring the expectations of 107 CEOs from among America's largest companies was at its highest level this year, according to Associated Press on Tuesday.
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More than half of the CEOs expect sales to grow in the next six months. However, their outlook for capital spending remained stagnant, and 40 percent predicted more job cuts.
The Business Roundtable said Tuesday its CEO outlook index rose to 44.9 in September from 18.5 in June. In March, the index stood at -5, its lowest reading since the survey began in 2002. A level below 50 is consistent with a shrinking economy.
"Right now, we're beginning to see sales trending up, but not to the level that translates into meaningful gains in capital spending or jobs," said Ivan Seidenberg, chairman of the association and CEO of Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ).
While 46 percent of CEOs in June expected sales to drop in the next six months, in the most recent survey, 51 percent expect sales to rise in the next six months. Meanwhile, 23 percent see no change and 26 percent expect a decline in sales.
As for jobs, the survey of CEOs, whose combined companies have 10 million employees, showed that many still expect meaningful drops in unemployment. The current U.S. jobless rate, at 9.7 percent, is expected to hit double digits this year and isn't expected to return to a more normal level for several years.
The survey showed 40 percent of the CEOs expect their company's employment to drop in the next six months, while 47 percent see no change and 13 percent expect an increase. That's only slightly better than last quarter's expectations, when 49 percent saw a drop, 45 percent expected no change, and 6 percent predicted their workforce would grow.
Employment growth "will take a little longer than (it has in) the past because this has been a deeper recession," said Seidenberg on a conference call with reporters. This was the first quarter showing an increase in demand, which was "a modest positive," he said. If sales continue to grow, then employers may increase hiring 12 to 18 months from now, he said.
Expectations for capital spending and hiring in the U.S. are modestly better than they were earlier this year, but remain weak. Only 21 percent of the CEOs surveyed expect an increase in capital spending, while 44 percent see no change and 35 percent expect declines. In June, 51 percent forecast drops in capital spending, and 12 percent saw growth.
The 107 CEOs surveyed estimated that for the year, gross domestic product will shrink 0.9 percent. In June, they expected a 2.1 percent decrease for the year.
The Business Roundtable is an association of chief executive officers of some of the biggest U.S. companies, which combined have more than $5 trillion in annual revenue and nearly 10 million employees. It surveyed its members from Sept. 2 to Sept. 18.
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