AccuWeather.com's reports colThe worst impact of Typhoon Lupit now looks set to miss the storm-ravaged north of the Philippines. Lupit is expected to veer northward and thus spare Luzon the worst of its destructive wind, though flooding rain and locally damaging winds are still expected over northern Luzon.
Thursday morning, EDT, the center of Lupit was 350 miles northeast of Manila with a westerly drift at 6 mph. Highest sustained winds were near 75 mph -- still those of a Category 1 storm, yet far below last weekend's Category-4 winds of then-Super Typhoon Lupit.
Lupit will continue to drift to the north and east of Luzon Island over the Philippine Sea over the next day or two as the area of high pressure that has been steering Lupit has weakened. This area of high pressure is expected to regain strength over the weekend and will cause Lupit to veer northeastward and thus away from the Philippines, rather than making a potentially devastating westward transit of northern Luzon.
Were Lupit to transit northern Luzon from east to west, it would unleash extreme flooding rainfall in some of the same areas that were inundated by Typhoon Parma (also known as Pepeng to Filipinos) earlier in the month. Even the more likely northward-veering track would still allow some flooding rain to reach far-northern Luzon, with local amounts of 10 inches or more possible.
The Philippines have had their share of direct hits from typhoons this season. Typhoons Ketsana and Parma struck the islands spanning late September into the first part of October, leaving more than 850 dead and dozens still missing.
Ketsana, known to Filipinos as Ondoy, dropped feet of rain on parts of the Philippines. Much of Manila, the capital of the nation, was underwater following the storm as over 16 inches of rain fell in the city. Parma targeted fishing villages and farmers farther north on the island of Luzon, where 55,000 homes were destroyed.
Diseases, including leptospirosis and dengue fever, bred by contaminated floodwaters continue to take their toll on the Filipino population. To make matters worse, only a handful of health clinics remained intact after the flooding.
The situation in the Philippines is desperate enough, even without the effects of Lupit directly impacting the nation.
While the northern Philippines are spared from the brunt of Lupit, Japan's Ryukyu Islands may not be so lucky this weekend. Lupit's path is expected to pass very near the Islands, producing upwards of 20 inches of rain and locally destructive winds.
Roberti@AccuWeather.com
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