Weather Trends International's 2013 Hurricane Forecast

This year will be active due to patterns in certain oceanic and atmospheric variables that are analogous to other years that had active hurricane seasons, like 2004 and 2007. While those years had 15 named storms, our forecast of 20 named storms took into account recent bias in the naming of weak storms by the National Hurricane Center, which previously would not have been named. Anomalous warming of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures over the past couple of months will be a source of energy to power storms. The Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA), which measures the anomaly of the average monthly sea surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, is in a positive phase and the pattern of the index is eerily similar to that of the active seasons of 2004 and 2005. A broader measurement of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) which is also in its warm phase, and has been for the past 17 years, and has been linked to increased tropical activity over the past several years.

This is the time of year to begin reviewing and updating emergency plans. The forecast calls for an above average season, but keep in mind that it takes only 1 storm to have devastating impacts in a region.

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