News / Business
Weather Trends International January 2010 Retail Business Weather Round-up
Globally, it was a frigid January with the coldest and snowiest conditions in decades for much of the U.K., Europe, Russia, parts of China and the Southern U.S. which is a big negative for overall retail sales performance (click here for Global Temperature Summary Map). Historically, a warmer, drier and less snowy January results in +5% higher retail industry same-store sales (SSS) gains compared to a cold and snowy month.
Here in North America the pattern was up-side-down with Canada having the 2nd warmest January in two decades with snowfall across the country down -47% vs. a year ago, while the Deep South of the U.S. had snowfall up +161% in the Southeast over last year (most in 14 years), up +188% in the South Central U.S. (most in 13 years) and up +331% in the Southwest (most in 5 years). The late month Deep South snow storm resulted in U.S. snow cover reaching 70% of the U.S. blanketed in some snow – something that hasn’t occurred in decades. Across the Southern U.S. temperatures were also the coldest in 9 years with record breaking freezes as far south as Florida driving triple digit sales gains for Winter merchandise (click here for Regional Summary Chart).
Across the northern U.S. it wasn’t quite as bad with the Pacific Northwest having the warmest January in over 18 years and snowfall down a whopping -83%, the least in 16 years (very favorable for retail store traffic). Even in the North Central U.S. and Northeast snowfall was down -39% and -34%, respectively, with 5°F warmer conditions than a year ago (a significant change on a monthly level).
Nationally, snowfall was down -22% vs. a year ago January (9th snowiest of the past 17 years) and -6% below average. These milder and less snowy trends across the Northern U.S. were certainly a plus for overall retail industry same-store-sales (SSS) and while the stormy weather in the South would ordinarily be a negative, it actually spurred strong sales for Winter seasonal merchandise with “panic” buying for storm related merchandise and pantry loading items.
“The most important and statistically significant factors for stronger retail sales performance in January are the consumer confidence index followed closely by less severe weather,” said Bill Kirk, CEO Weather Trends International. Last year, the January index was at an all time low (38), which in part explains the disastrous retail SSS results of -4.8% according to ICSC’s tally of 60 major retailers, vs. this year’s confidence index of 53. While 53 is nothing to get too excited about (90 is a strong index indicating a strong economy), it’s still better than last year and combined with the more favorable weather trends retailers should post gains in-line to higher than expected when results are announced Thursday, February 4th. Over the past 25 years a stronger than expected December (December 2009 brought very strong industry gains of +3.6% according to ICSC) is followed by a stronger than expected January 82% of cases so the math suggests more retailers will again be in positive territory!
For a complete business-weather roundup click on the links below for a detailed PDF summary report:
U.S. January 2010 Retail Business Weather Summary Report
U.K. January 2010 Retail Business-Weather Summary Report
G-20 January 2010 Retail Business-Weather Summary Report
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PRESS CONTACTS:
Bill Kirk, CEO & Co-Founder Weather Trends International
(O) 610-807-3585 (C) 484-903-6887
About Weather Trends International: The global leader of actionable year-ahead business weather guidance for retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, agricultural firms, financial equity and commodity analysts. Clients include some of the world’s most respected and successful companies like Wal-Mart, ASDA, Target, Kohl’s, AutoZone, Sherwin-Williams, Anheuser-Busch, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, SC Johnson, JP Morgan, Agway, Hershey’s and over a hundred fifty others. Its business centric weather solutions and understanding of how consumers respond to the weather is used throughout organizations to help "manage the weather risk”. Utilizing technology first developed in the early 1990s, Weather Trends International’s unique statistical math based trade secret formula forecasting methodology projects temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends by day and week a year-ahead for 720,000 locations across the globe (all 195 countries) with an industry leading 75% to 95% accuracy. WTI is recipient of 6 business/technology awards this year: 2009 winner of the Red Herring North America technology award, 2009 winner of the American Business Award for Most Innovative Company of the Year, International Business Award for Most Innovative Company of the Year in North America and Forbes #5 Most Promising Company of the year. Offices in Bethlehem, PA, and Bentonville, AR. Visit http://www.wxtrends.com/ or http://www.myskeye.com/ for more information.
