According to the latest American Research Group polls in South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire, Obama's best chance to win is New Hampshire says USAElectionPolls.com.
Barack Obama is running third behind Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in South Carolina. He is barely over double digits in Iowa and many indications seem to suggest that Bill Richardson will pass him up in that state. So his best chance is New Hampshire. Clinton holds a 9% lead over Obama but the state has an open primary in which Independents can vote for a Democratic candidate so the lead may be smaller.
Approval ratings seem to indicate that Obama would fare stronger with Independents than would Clinton.
For archives of any completed Democratic poll, visit USAElectionPolls.com.