Bill Richardson Likely to Win Iowa Caucus Says Analyst

Polling analysts at USAElectionPolls.com are predicting an upset victory for Bill Richardson in Iowa's caucus. The web site acknowledged that the caucus is  six months away but suggest that time is on Bill Richardson's side.

"Bill Richardson was averaging just 1.0% in both Iowa and New Hampshire in January 2007. In June 2007, Bill Richardson got to as high as double digits in both states. The longer he is on the campaign trail, the more familiar voters become with his credentials and that helps him." says USAElectionPolls.com.

The analysts listed out the reasons time is on Richardson's side.

 
•     Richardson is committed to a positive campaign.
 
• He is a very likeable candidate and few can attack him.
 
• The more familiar voters are with him, the more they like him.
 
• More time means more mistakes are likely by current leaders Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama.

The polls are quite clear. American Research Group had a Pennsylvania and Michigan poll released earlier this month that had Richardson at 8% and 7% respectively. "Richardson is gaining necessary name recognition in states he is not even campaigning in. That is a sign that voters are eager to vote for him." says USAElectionPolls.com. Among most likely voters in a Fairbank Maslin Maullin and Associates Iowa poll, Bill Richardson received 18%, beating out Barack Obama by 2% and trailing Clinton by just 5%. He was  at 13% by all likely voters.

The web site also wanted to point out that Edwards was only getting 6-9% in the national polls at this same point in time before the 2004 election and he came up second in Iowa. Iowa rejected the negative campaigning from Dean and Gephardt so they chose Kerry and Edwards. "The same will likely be true in the Iowa caucus this election" because voters in Iowa will likely reject Clinton and Edwards as the leaders because of their attitudes after the NAACP forum in which they blasted other candidates as not serious.

It is up to the Iowa voter to determine the serious candidates. USAElectionPolls.com states on their website that Iowa voters "vote based on the issues and the candidates themselves" and that "Bill Richardson is winning the issues war because he is the only Democratic candidate running for president that is a Governor. Iowans traditionally prefer Governors."

Although they claim that Bill Richardson is the most likely winner in Iowa. They claim that the moment it becomes obvious voters in Iowa (and nationally) are starting to reject Clinton and Edwards as the leaders, there is a strong likelihood that Al Gore will join the race and this would thwart any momentum from Bill Richardson's campaign.

> To view the full article.