When it comes to presidential elections, 50% appears to be determined by polls, while the remaining 50% is governed by wrangling, voodoo, negative campaigning, and fund raising. August 25th will see the Democratic National Convention which will be followed on September 1st by the Republican National Convention. Even though officially the 2008 presidential polls hold little value until then, the truth simply dictates that not only the time span leading up to November 4th is heavily impacting the polls, but the days leading up to the conventions is becoming a pollster’s mainstay.
For example, when perusing the various state polls for the last six months on USA Election Polls’ site, you will find that Mrs. Clinton's New Hampshire numbers are impressive and beating Barack Obama, but when it comes to following the steady increase in popularity, Mr. Obama threatens to outdo the former First Lady. Where she has lost support, he was able to steadily hold on to his support or actually increase his share.
The danger for politicians too closely watching the polls is obvious: the temptation to flip flop on hot button topics is great, the temptation to agree with Ross Perot’s evaluation of NAFTA only to later explain that you were referring to the giant sucking sound actually pertaining to something different when the audience is different, and the defamatory rhetoric about members of the same party who might later be their running mates. For voters the danger of watching the polls and not listening to the word the candidates are speaking is obvious: falling for the hype instead of understanding the fact will lead to the election of candidates on emotion rather than factual basis.
To view the latest polls, visit the archives of 2008 Presidential Polls.
