The 2004 list of democratic primary candidates read like a who’s who where the dubious met the divine. Battling for the nod were Joseph Lieberman, Wesley Clark, John Edward, John Kerry, Bob Graham, Carol Brown and Dick Gephardt while under the heading of “also ran” came Dennis Kucinich, Al Sharpton and of course Howard Dean. While the campaigning toward the end became plagued with dirty tricks and typical politicking, it soon became clear that John Kerry had the confidence of the voters. Iowa and New Mexico showed not indications of impending doom as it became evident during the 2004 election.
Yet even though Kerry was decidedly the winner with all others severely lagging behind, the fact that it took him 70 campaign days to bring democratic Iowans onto his side should have been a warning. While it is true that he was heavily favored from the beginning, Howard Dean’s vociferous presence and John Edwards’ somewhat quiet campaign made this a hard won victory.
Kerry lost to President Bush despite poor job approval ratings.
Although this may not speak of things to come in 2008, the close races between Giuliani and McCain as well as between Clinton, Edwards, and Obama will make for interesting guess work and pundit fodder. After all, as the gaps are narrowing and the front runners appear to be loosing favor with the voters, it is only a matter of time before a victory so close and seemingly within reach may be pulled out from under the ambitious candidate at the last minute. Heavy campaigning may make a difference, but in the case of Kerry versus Edwards in Iowa, the decision did not seem to hinge solely on the number of appearances.
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