Pollsters determine who is a likely voter based on historical data of voter turnout. But the Ron Paul campaign is banking on voters who were once disillusioned with politics to prove the polls wrong. This is because Ron Paul's message of freedom and liberty, according to the campaign, has attracted those that may never have voted before.
A recent poll by St. Anselm College published on USAElectionPolls.com showed that Ron Paul would garner 44% of the vote among Liberals planning on voting in the Republican primary, with 13% undecided.
Moderates did not favor Ron Paul any more than Republicans and according to USAElectionPolls.com, "how well Ron Paul does really depends on turnout of Liberals to support Ron Paul and whether the Moderates will begin to shift to Ron Paul".
They explain that Ron Paul can make significant gains in New Hampshire among but that if he does so, the GOP "will start to put more of their support behind one or two candidates as a means of blocking Ron Paul".
Whether Ron Paul starts appealing to the base of the party remains to be seen but if the latest Rasmussen Reports poll is of any significance - 15% of the GOP believe the war should be ended immediately and another 25% believe all the troops should come back home within a year. Success in New Hampshire can not hurt.
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