With the media focused almost exclusively on the campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, John Edwards has been seen by many as a foregone loss. Some had made tentative suggestions that he might make a decent running mate for either Clinton or Obama, though no indication has come from the Edwards camp that he would be willing to repeat his role from the Gore/Bush election of 2000. The point, however, is that it is never too late to surge ahead in the polls. According to one of the web’s most respected sources for collating poll information, usaelectionpolls.com, John Edwards is surging up to thirty percent and the lead in Iowa.
Brad Michael, a political analyst who specializes in the Iowa caucus, was as surprised as anyone at the poll numbers. “Edwards has run a quiet campaign. But sometimes quiet is best. People respect it. It could be a major upset for people expecting an Obama/Hillary landslide type of event.” Michael isn’t the only one with such sentiments. One can even hear surprise in the voices of Democratic supporters, many of whom were only waiting to see who would emerge victorious between the top two “uncrowned” candidates.
Edwards, for his part, has remained calm and prescient about his chances rolling into Iowa. Candidates have swept the early votes, only to wind up far behind in the long run, though it is an increasingly rare phenomenon. Though the sociological theories behind it are best left to an article with greater scope, the power of an early lead usually has a defining impact on the rest of the race. Could it be Obama and Hillary vying for a running mate position on an Edwards ticket?
