Here are the latest results from the Wisconsin poll by American Research Group published on USAElectionPolls.com:
There were 600 voters polled on 2/17-18.
| American Research Group Date: 2/17-18 Wisconsin Added: 2/19/08 Est. MoE = 4.0% |
|
| Barack Obama | 52% |
| Hillary Clinton | 42% |
| Unsure | 5% |
| Other | 1% |
Quote:
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 59% to 37% (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, it is Clinton 47% and Obama 46%. In the February 15-16 survey, Obama was leading Clinton among men 48% to 42% and Clinton was leading Obama among women 55% to 39%.Obama leads Clinton among white voters 49% to 45% (88% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 86% to 9% (8% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Obama leads Clinton among Latino voters 61% to 33%.
27% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 15% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. White voters age 45 to 64 have switched from Clinton to Obama, although women in this age group are less apt to say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton when compared to the men in the age group.
During the course of the campaign in Wisconsin, Clinton lost 14 percentage points of strong support (close to a 25% drop) and Obama gained 18 percentage points of strong support (over a 64% increase). Also, Clinton's strong negative increased by 10 percentage points while Obama's increased by 6 percentage points. That is political momentum for Obama.
The shifts began as white, working class men between the ages of 45 and 64 (and fitting the demographic profile of an Edwards voter in the early states) moved from saying Obama was acceptable to them, but not a favorite candidate, to saying they preferred Obama over the other candidates running. At the same time, these men began to also say that they would never vote for Clinton in the primary once Obama became their preferred candidate.
The sharp drop for Clinton came, however, when white, working class women between the ages of 45 and 64 switched from Clinton to Obama in the final days of the campaign. They know and like both candidates and they could switch back to Clinton (as women in this demographic group did in New Hampshire), but Obama's gains and Clinton's losses give the edge to Obama. That is the benefit of political momentum. --Dick Bennett
Source: Tracking Polls, State Presidential Primary Polls
The average poll results over the last 5 days in the Wisconsin polls from USAElectionPolls.com are:
| Candidate | % |
| Hillary Clinton | 45 |
| Barack Obama | 48 |
