Here are the latest results from the Texas poll by IVR Polls published on USAElectionPolls.com:
There were 582 voters polled on 2/20.
| IVR Polls Date: 2/20 Texas Added: 2/21/08 Est. MoE = 4.1% |
|
| Hillary Clinton | 50% |
| Barack Obama | 45% |
| Unsure | 3% |
| Other | 2% |
Quote:
Anyone who claims to know what Democratic turnout will be is lying, but analysis of earlier contests indicates many new primary voters resulting in higher proportions of women, African-American and younger voters. My previous polling has relied on historical turnout models and a sample of voters with past primary voting history. That worked fine when it was assumed that Texas would vote long after the nominations were effectively decided. For this round of polling, I have made several modifications. First, I have added general election voters who haven't voted in past primaries to the sample. I have added an oversample of young voters, not filtered by voting history. I have also added an oversample for certain areas with a high percentage of African-Americans, but historically low primary turnout. Finally, I have increased weightings for young voters and African-American voters. Those increased weightings also slightly boosted female turnout, so I did not specifically modify that weighting.To filter the results for likely voters, I asked a few non-primary questions and then asked about intent to vote in the primary. Past primary voters were significantly more likely to say they intended to vote than those that had not previously voted in primaries.
Source: Tracking Polls, State Presidential Primary Polls
The average poll results over the last 5 days in the Texas polls from USAElectionPolls.com are:
| Candidate | % |
| Hillary Clinton | 50 |
| Barack Obama | 45 |
