AccuWeather.com reports Tropical Cyclone Phet, in the Arabian Sea, will slam the northeast coast Oman tonight, before shifting its track to the east, possibly bringing it near Karachi, Pakistan, over the weekend.
The projected path of Phet brings it into contact with millions of lives along the northern Arabian Seacoast in the Middle East into the weekend.
Phet, the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane, with its sustained winds of around 120 mph and gusts to 150 mph as of Thursday afternoon, EDT, was just to the southeast of the island of Masirah just off the coast of Oman.
While Phet has weakened a bit during the past 24 hours, it is still a very dangerous storm.
According to CNN, the government of Oman had commenced evacuations of people in coastal areas.
The storm has made a turn to the north along coast of Oman. However, the powerful eye wall threatens areas from island of Masirah to city of Sur into Friday.
The storm threatens to unleash destruction from high winds, pounding surf and torrential rain on a location that typically receives only a few inches of rain per year. Conditions in northeastern Oman will deteriorate into tonight as the storm approaches and makes a run along or just inland of the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Gonu hit the Sur area hard in 2007 and is considered to be Oman's worst natural disaster.
Phet could have a very similar outcome turning the dry stream beds, called wadis, into raging torrents, while mudslides cascade down the mountainsides in the northeastern part of Oman.
From 3 to 6 inches of rain is expected to fall on the parched landscape of northeastern Oman, which almost all will run off.
Odds favor the destructive winds of Phet to slide to the east of the oil fields in Oman and southern Iran, as the tropical cyclone is rather compact.
A track farther west over Oman would cause rapid weakening of the storm but could bring heavy rain, damaging wind and flooding as far northwest as the Oman capital of Muscat, home to over 600,000 people. However, this track does not appear likely at this time.
Since Phet is expected to curve to the northeast Friday night after battering coastal Oman, a trip back over the warm, open waters of the northern part of the Arabian Sea would allow for some restrengthening.
Later in the weekend, Phet could slam into coast of Pakistan as a tropical cyclone, threatening the city of Karachi and other coastal communities, perhaps with damaging and life-threatening consequences.
Since the storm will be in a weakened state after tangling with northeastern Oman, the threat to Pakistan and northwest India will be that of flooding rainfall. The magnitude of the rain and flooding will depend on how much Phet re-strengthens over the northern Arabian Sea.
Fifteen and a half million people live in the city of Karachi, part of the Indus River Delta region.
Depending upon the nature of the expected recurve of Phet, the northwestern part of India could also be threatened.
Small craft should avoid this area or remain in port, until the storm has moved inland over Pakistan/India. The storm may affect shipping out of the Gulf of Hormuz for up to a several day period.
According to Reuters, 40 percent of seaborne oil passes through the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Approximately 170 vessels were missing as of Thursday morning, according to Dawn, one of Pakistan's English language newspapers.
Seas in the vicinity of Phet were between 20 and 30 feet Thursday.
Story by Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com
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