Texas Poll Released by IVR Polls (IVRPolls.com): Barack Obama 46%, Hillary Clinton 49%

Here are the latest results from the Texas poll by IVR Polls (IVRPolls.com) published on USAElectionPolls.com:

There were 1162 voters polled on 2/28&3/2.

Quote:

Clinton is ahead 3% in polls conducted on February 28 and March 2nd. 3/2 numbers favored Clinton more than the 2/28 numbers.

To prepare my model, I broke down the actual 2004 primary vote by age group, ethnicity and gender. Then I multiplied the turnout by different factors - women were given a small bump, while voters under 40 and African-Americans were given a very large increase. These factors were based on earlier primaries and reports of early voting turnout. At the end, Latinos were still a larger share than African-Americans, and the influx of white Bush voters kept the non-white percentages down more than they probably would have if the GOP race was still competitive.

I find that Clinton has a slight lead in early voting. If the model was reweighted with a higher percentage of African-Americans, Obama would have led early voting. In particular, the part of Harris County where State Senate District 13 and Congressional District 18 intersect shows Obama dominating in overall margin, early voting and intent to attend the precint convention, all with very high turnout.

Source: National Polls, State Presidential Primary Polls

The average poll results over the last 5 days in the Texas polls from USAElectionPolls.com are: