Wise March Madness Bets

The NCAA Basketball Tournament has begun and plenty of sports fans will be placing their bets.  With the right statistics and regression analysis, you could do well.  Gathering decades of statistics on tournament teams that have been compiled from game programs, sports bettors will run regression analyses on teams Performance Against Seed Expectations. Or you could figure the teams that have done better in the tournament than you would have expected them to.

Most of the winning teams have had a few important qualities. They are all seeded one through four and come from a Big Six Conference for example, Pac 10, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East.  In addition, they most likely went to last season's tournament and have a coach who has been to the tournament at least five times.  Good team pics also score more than 77 points per game and win by an average of at least 10 points per game.  Only four teams meet that criteria; North Carolina, Duke, Kansas ad Tennessee.  Oddly enough, the UCLA Bruins aren't one of them. They only score about 75 points per game which has been dropping since the late 80s.  However, some experts still think that they might be a safe bet.

Another strategy might be to Just pick the higher seed, depending on your bracket. It's always good to go with your instincts. Some people run statistical regressions looking for teams that have done well in the past or determine teams that are underrated relative to their seed.

Other things to keep in mind are teams that go into the tournament winning more than eight games in a row tend to underachieve.  Also, teams that are more dominant in the front court in terms of scoring overachieve.  Over the past 2 decades, the Pac 10 has been the worst performing conference so stay away from those teams.  Others suggest not to pick a champion lower than a 4 seed or a final four team lower than a 6 seed.  It's never a good idea to pick a bigger upset than a 12 over a 5 either.  However, it is advisable to pick teams that shoot a lot of three pointers.

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