Nevada Poll Released by Rasmussen Reports: Barack Obama 42%, John McCain 40%

Here are the latest results from the Nevada poll by Rasmussen Reports published on USAElectionPolls.com:

There were 500 voters polled on 7/18.

Quote:

In Nevada, Barack Obama has a two-point edge over John McCain according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. It’s Obama 42% and McCain 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama is on top 47% to 45%. Nevada is one of three southwestern states targeted by the Obama campaign. Like New Mexico and Colorado, it went narrowly for President Bush four years ago.

While the presumptive Democratic nominee’s lead in Nevada is statistically insignificant, it represents quite a change from the last three polls. In each of those, McCain held the advantage by margins ranging from three to six points. A month ago, it was McCain 45%, Obama 42%. Two months ago, McCain had a six point lead and three months ago the GOP hopeful was up by five.

McCain now leads among men by ten but trails by twelve among women. He retains a seventeen point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama currently attracts 79% support from Democrats in the state. That’s up five points from a month ago and up fourteen points from two months ago when Clinton was still in the race. McCain wins the vote from 76% of Republicans, little changed from a month ago.

Both candidates gained five percentage points in support when leaners are included in the totals. Most of Obama’s increase came from Democrats leaning in his direction. Most of McCain’s increase came from unaffiliated voters.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especial when the results have a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 44% to 41%. A month ago, McCain led by four points in the three-poll average.

Source: State Primary Polls, Electoral College Results