Here are the latest results from the Virginia poll by Rasmussen Reports published on USAElectionPolls.com:
There were 700 voters polled on 8/12.
| Rasmussen Reports Date: 8/12 Virginia Added: 8/14/08 |
|
| Barack Obama | 46% |
| John McCain | 45% |
| Unsure | 5% |
| Other | 3% |
Quote:
InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Obama is doing well among independents and females. I must admit that the typical age patterns we have seen in all of our recent surveys did not hold in this one. For example, the youngest vote, although a small sample, went to McCain, but the 65 and over vote went to McCain by a lower percentage than in our surveys of other states."Regardless, the secret to Obama’s ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia’s black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years. And, as I’ve noted many times, polls this far out always give the Republican candidate a higher percentage of the African-American vote than they ultimately receive. This will make the votes of those who chose 'other' or 'undecided' critical as the race really gets underway after the conventions.” While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it’s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor’s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.
McCain does have one significant edge over Obama in that he is viewed far more favorably than his Democratic opponent. McCain earns favorable reviews from 61% of Virginia voters, Obama from just 51%.
Perhaps more ominous for Obama is the fact that 47% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 31% with a Very Unfavorable view.
For McCain, just 36% have an unfavorable opinion including 16% with a Very Unfavorable assessment.
Two Virginia politicians have been mentioned as potential Vice Presidential candidates. Neither appears poised to make a significant impact. Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters statewide say adding Governor Tim Kaine to the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Obama. A nearly identical number (25%) would be less likely to vote for Obama. Among unaffiliated voters, 12% consider adding Kaine a plus while 24% hold the opposite view.
As for Congressman Eric Cantor, just 12% of voters would be more likely to vote for McCain with him on ticket. Twenty-three percent (23%) would be less likely to do so. Among unaffiliated voters, 8% more likely, 23% less likely.
Source: National Polls, Electoral College Results
