A
just-completed pre-election poll, conducted by the Free Enterprise Nation (FEN),
showed a surprising participation by voters over the age of 50. This 110-million strong voting bloc
represents nearly one-half of the estimated 225 million voting-age population
in the US. This “senior voter” category
is composed of about 35 million who are over the age of 65 and an additional 75
million “baby-boomers”, aged 50-64.
Since
the 50+ age group represents about one-half of the voting population, FEN had
expected that we’d get that ratio of the people taking the FEN pre-election
poll, but the percentage of this group that took the poll was 72%. This was counter-intuitive, as we had
anticipated a lower participation from this age group, as it is generally
believed that younger voters would be more likely to be “on-line” than senior
citizens.
What
about other age categories? We got the
expected participation from the age 36-49 category. They represent 20% of the
eligible voters, and they made up 20% of the population that took the
poll. Their outlook mirrors the outlook
of voters over the age of 50, and one-third of this group also defines itself
as independent.
The
under-36 age group was “missing in action”. Representing 30% of the eligible
voting population, only 7% took the FEN poll.
The 1,000+ under age 36 who took the poll is considered a credible
sampling, and it indicates that there are some differences as compared to the
older population sets. They are evenly apportioned among the three voting
categories, indicating that independents would make the difference in their
overall voting behavior. Under 36
independents blame President Obama/Congress equally with President Bush/Wall
Street/Big corporations, and would presumably vote 50% Democrat and 50%
Republican resulting in a VERY close race.
But if they do not participate in this off-year election, (and the FEN
poll says they won’t) they won’t be a factor on Tuesday.
How can
we explain the heavy participation by “seniors” and the low participation by
those aged 35 and younger? The poll was widely advertised with ads on most
websites that would accept Google ads. The explanation, we believe, is that
younger voters are generally not highly engaged in this election, and older
voters are. Simply put, we believe that
a small percentage of under 35 voters took the poll because a small percentage
of under 35 voters have an interest in this election.
The
polarization that exists between Democrats and Republicans in the 50+ age group
mirrored the results found at other ages. There was remarkable consistency in
poll results as to how Republicans and Democrats see things, regardless of age
or other demographics. The
decisive findings, we believe, are that 31% of all respondents over the age of
50 identified themselves as ‘independent”, and independents see unemployment
and national debt as the overwhelming economic issues, and they strongly (68%)
assign responsibility for those problems to President Obama and Congress, while
Democrats overwhelmingly blame President Bush, Wall Street/Banks and big
corporations.
Looking
at the issue by age, while voters under age 35 are evenly split as to whom is
to blame, 72% of the senior voters blame President Obama and Congress. The impact of this will be that the low
turnout of the under 35 voter will result in the independent vote going heavily
Republican.
FEN
believes that it is reasonable to assume that those who blame President Obama
and Congress for current economic woes will vote against those who support the
president, or who are currently members in Congress that supported the
president. With 100% of Republicans and 70% of independent voters seeing our
economic problems, and the responsibility for these problems, the same way, and
with senior voters turning out in unusually large numbers while younger voters
stay, we see the “independent” senior voter as having an overwhelming impact in
this election cycle.
FEN
predicts that we’ll see Democrats voting as Democrats, and Republicans and the
vast majority of independents voting as Republicans. We’ll see a huge turnout of age 50+ voters,
and a virtual “no show” of voters under age 35, where Democrat strength usually
lies. By Wednesday morning we believe we
will see a Republican sweep, led by the massive votes of “seniors”, the first
of many “senior moments” that will dominate election results for the next
decade.
The Free
Enterprise Nation is a non-partisan member based organization representing American
employees and businesses in the private sector. Its President, James
MacDougald is a regular guest on many national news networks including CNBC,
FOX News, CNN and MSNBC and was recently prominently featured in the John Stossel
special, The Battle for the Future.
Contact: The Free Enterprise Nation
Kathleen Mott (813) 384-2400
Email: kmott@thefreeenterprisenation.org
