New Hampshire Poll Released by University of New Hampshire WMUR: Barack Obama 45%, John McCain 47%

Here are the latest results from the New Hampshire poll by University of New Hampshire WMUR published on USAElectionPolls.com:

There were 550 voters polled on 9/14-21.

>> Receive Daily Poll Summaries To Your Inbox <<
Be the first to know who will win.

Quote:

Concentrating on the “horse race” provides a misleading depiction of the New Hampshire electorate. It is crucial to point out that many New Hampshire voters have not firmly decided who they will actually vote for in November. In order to investigate this, the Granite State Poll conducted an experiment in which half the sample of respondents were asked “Suppose the 2008 presidential election was being held today and the candidates were John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans and Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, who would you vote for?” and half were asked “Thinking about the presidential election in November, would you vote for Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin … Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden … someone else … or haven’t you decided yet?”

While the closeness of the race is similar under both question wordings, a significantly higher percentage say they are undecided when asked about voting in November (20%) than they are if asked if the election were held today (8%).

Among voters who are initially undecided, 32% say they lean toward McCain, 21% lean toward Obama and 47% are still undecided.

Voters who were decided in their preference for President were asked a follow-up question which probed for how firm their choice was. Overall, 88% percent said they were firm in their choice and 12% said they could change their minds.

When combined, these questions reveal a more nuanced electorate. Currently, 38% of New Hampshire voters firmly support Obama, 5% support Obama but may change their minds, 3% are undecided but lean toward Obama. A similar pattern is seen for McCain – 37% of New Hampshire voters firmly support McCain, 5% support McCain, but may change their minds, and 5% are undecided but lean toward McCain.

Source: Latest Polls, Electoral College Results