Weather Trends International November 2010 Weather Round-Up

U.S. NOVEMBER 2010 SUMMARY: November 2010 was the first month since May 2010 to trend colder than last year for the nation as a whole. All 4 weeks of the retail November trended colder than last year with some of the greatest y-o-y changes occurring during the Black Friday weekend which was the coldest in over 20 years. While precipitation trended greater than last year, this was the 6^th driest November in 18+ years. Snow trended much higher than last year with the 7 ^th most snowfall in 18+ years for the nation as a whole (See U.S. Regional Ranking Chart). Up to a foot of snow fell in parts of Minnesota during the 2^nd week of the month as a powerful storm rolled across the Upper Midwest; the following week, the 1^st major storm of the season swept into the West delivering heavy rain to lower elevations and heavy snow to the Sierra Mountains.

The most important retail period of the month was, of course, the Black Friday weekend. Cold weather was a positive during this period as holiday shoppers loaded up on both gifts and must-have cold weather categories. Another positive for gifts and store traffic was very dry weather across the nation with 95% of the country staying dry. Snow coverage was much greater this year with 36% of the nation covered in snow (most in 10 years) versus 8% last year. While snow can cause disruptions to store traffic, much of this snow had already fallen by Black Friday so disruptions were minimal and the snow covered landscape helped to get consumers in the Winter mindset. See November 2010 U.S. Weather Summary

Pent-up demand for cold weather categories following an exceptionally warm October likely led to double and triple digit sales gains for seasonal products like electric blankets, pantry loading foods, heavy outerwear, car batteries, etc. Much more snow this year will have led to very strong increases for snow and ice removal products as well. Reports of flu are down considerably from last year (thanks to the warmer start to Fall) which is another boost for store traffic and gift sales, but an obvious negative for Drug Stores. High end retailers are expected to come out on top this month with Drug Stores expected to underperform. Given all the positives of the month including: favorable weather, decreased flu cases and easy comparisons to last year, WTI expects same-store-sales results to come in well above expectations.

U.K. NOVEMBER 2010 SUMMARY:  November 2010 closely mirrored the trends of October 2010 with a warmer y-o-y start to the month, followed by an intrusion of colder, Arctic air. That Arctic air helped to tie 2010 with 1998 for the 3^rd coldest November in 18+ years. With frigid air entrenched across the U.K., snow became much more widespread by the final week of the month as Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern and eastern England all received measurable snow. Precipitation trended much drier than last year with every week except week 2 trending drier than last year. Week 2 featured 2 powerful weather systems that produced snow in the Scottish Highlands, heavy rain and severe gales elsewhere. The U.K. Regional Summary shows that November 2010 trended the coldest in 12 years and 8th driest in 18+ years for the country as a whole.

Milder and drier conditions at the beginning of the month were unfavorable for seasonal categories, however, Guy Fawkes Night related food categories benefited from unusually mild night time temperatures. Colder and wetter trends during the 2^nd week of the month provided a boost for cold weather categories, but flooding and power outages due to strong storms may have tempered footfall. The last half of the month was the most favorable for cold weather categories as much colder, Arctic air provided ample opportunities for seasonal categories like heavy outerwear, electric blankets, pantry loading foods and body lotions with double to triple digit increases in y-o-y demand (See U.K. November 2010 Weather Summary). Snow and ice removal products also got a lift as snowfall during the final week of the month was the most widespread since 1993. Colder weather was an overall positive for November and should be reflected in sales results for seasonal categories, but consumer uncertainty continues to soften final sales results.

G-20 NOVEMBER 2010 SUMMARY:  Temperatures across the G-20 trended -0.4^o C colder than last year with the greatest y-o-y change in western and northern Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia and much of South America. While colder weather was a boon for the northern hemisphere's seasonal Autumn categories, colder weather in Australia and South America made retailer's lives there a bit more difficult as seasonal Spring category demand was subdued. Much warmer y-o-y trends could be found in high latitudes of North America, Africa, Asia and eastern Europe. Russia, which has been no stranger to exceptionally warm weather this year, saw unusually warm Autumn temperatures during the first half of November as temperatures were about +10^o C warmer than normal, a negative for cold weather products. In fact, Moscow broke record temperatures on 5 different days in November.

Records were also broken as the Atlantic Hurricane Season and eastern North Pacific season came to a close on the 30^th. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season tied 1887 and 1995 for the 3^rd most active with 19 named storms, meanwhile, the eastern North Pacific saw the fewest number of named storms since the mid-1960s with 7 storms. Hurricane Tomas in the Caribbean caused extensive damage to Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, the Grenadines, and Haiti where heavy rains contributed to a growing cholera epidemic. Cyclone Jal caused record-breaking rainfall in India and Sri Lanka with satellites estimates of over 600 mm of rain in southern India. Before Jal formed into a Cyclone, it caused trouble in Malaysia and Thailand as a tropical low pressure system dumping heavy rain which displaced thousands of people and disrupted transportation. The commercial capital of southern Thailand, Hat Yai, was particularly affected by the storm as water accumulated up to 3 meters deep in some places.

For a complete business-weather roundup click on the links below for a detailed PDF summary report:

U.S. NOVEMBER 2010 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

U.K. NOVEMBER 2010 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

G-20 NOVEMBER 2010 RETAIL BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

###