World Electric Lighting Demand to Reach $38.5 Billion in 2014

World demand for electric lighting is projected to climb 4.5 percent annually through 2014 to $38.5 billion.  Product sales will be driven by an acceleration in economic and personal income growth, a strong rebound in global motor vehicle output and a pickup in construction activity.  Increases will be even stronger in price-adjusted terms, averaging 7.1 percent per year through 2014.  Overall electric lighting prices are expected to drop as compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) and light-emitting diode (LED) costs decline and these products take share away from other lighting types, dampening dollar gains.  Looking further ahead, growth in electric lighting demand is expected to slow noticeably in value terms (with dollar sales actually falling in most developed countries) from 2014 to 2019.  This will be due in part to an ongoing shift in demand toward LED lighting devices, prices for which will continue to drop at double-digit annual rates.  In addition, greater use of LEDs, CFLs and other long-lasting lighting products will reduce the need to buy replacement units. These and other trends, including market share and product segmentation, are presented in World Electric Lighting, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry market research firm.

Market gains in developing countries will outpace electric lighting sales in the US, Western Europe and Japan, fueled by healthy economic growth, ongoing industrialization efforts, increased manufacturing output, new household formation activity and rising standards of living.  China alone will account for 47 percent of all additional product demand through 2014, strengthening its position as the largest electric lighting market in the world.  Growth is also expected to be healthy in India and in lower-volume markets like Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey and Egypt. 

LED (or solid-state) lighting devices will record the fastest market gains of any major product segment through 2014.  Historically, demand for LEDs used in lighting applications has been restrained by both high product prices and technical deficiencies such as quality and diffusion of light.  However, the rapid rate of technological advances is dramatically improving their performance capabilities and resulting in substantial reductions in cost, which will lead to LED use in a growing number of lighting applications.  CFL demand will expand at the next fastest pace, spurred by government-led efforts to phase out use of energy-inefficient general service incandescent lamps.

The Freedonia Group is a leading international business research company, founded in 1985, that publishes more than 100 industry research studies annually. This industry analysis provides an unbiased outlook and a reliable assessment of an industry and includes product segmentation and demand forecasts, industry trends, demand history, threats and opportunities, competitive strategies, market share determinations and company profiles.