February 2011 Retail Business Weather Round-Up

U.S. FEBRUARY 2011 SUMMARY: Arctic air and an onslaught of winter storms early in February battered a good portion of what was already a Winter weary US. The record-breaking "Groundhog Day Storm" began the month impacting a vast area from New Mexico to Wisconsin and eastward to Maine; even as far south as the Rio Grande in Texas saw some wintry precipitation. The storm brought blizzard conditions to Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan with reports of snowfall rates of 3-4'' per hour. Several roadways, including a 250 mile stretch of I-70, were closed as the snowfall rate outpaced clean-up crews. Ice associated with the storm caused widespread power outages from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic, including New York City. Behind the storm, a blast of Arctic Air caused a surge in energy demand in parts of Texas leading to rolling blackouts and natural gas shortages. Another round of wintry weather dropped 4-6'' of snow in Dallas, TX later in the week, hindering Super Bowl preparations. Luckily, the weather calmed down for the weekend allowing consumers to stock up for Super Bowl parties. Week 2 of February brought more wintry mess to parts of the South Central and Deep South with widespread 6-12'' of snow from the Texas Panhandle to Kansas and northern Arkansas with isolated amounts of 24''. Snow also spread across Mississippi to northern Georgia and the Carolinas. Like the Groundhog Day Storm, store traffic disruptions occurred during the week with calmer weather on the weekend helping retailers to make up for lost sales. Brutal cold followed the storm in the South Central, with temperatures so low that an all-time new record low was set for Oklahoma of -31F. View Snow Cover Map.

As Valentine's Day approached and love filled the air, something else was also filling the air in the South...Spring! Temperatures rebounded tremendously during retail week 3 with parts of the South Central US seeing temperature differences of +100 F from the prior week's bitter cold lows. Temperatures in the South soared into the 70s and 80s and even the North Central and Northeast states got a taste of Spring with a few days in the 50s and 60s. For the first time in 6 weeks, snowfall trended below what is typical for this time of year. Meanwhile, the West turned cold and wet with a series of strong Pacific storms dropping rain in the valleys and snow on the mountains. The final week of the retail February was another mild one for the South and Southeast, while the rest of the nation dealt with Winter as several storms traversed the nation making this the snowiest end to February in 19+ years. Out West, snow came unusually close to Los Angeles and San Francisco, but accumulating snow was confined to the surrounding hills and mountains. Severe weather in the East caused some damage with tornadoes and numerous reports of wind damage in the Southeast.

Despite all the cold and snowy weather during the first part of the month, the weather in February 2011 was actually more favorable than last year. Recall that last year the storm dubbed "Snowmageddon" dropped a widespread swath of 8-24'' of snow in the East with the biggest impacts from the storm on the weekend. While the Groundhog Day Storm was  a massive and record-breaking storm, the highest impacts to store traffic came during the week when traffic is typically lower and the storm caused only minor to moderate disruptions in the major metropolitan areas of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Winter clearance and cold/snow categories would have sold best east of the Rockies during the first half of the month with items like fire logs, hot soups & beverages, snow toys, shovels, deicers and rock salt all seeing a surge in demand. Following Valentine's Day, warmer weather in the South and East should have caused a surge in Spring category demand. Very warm and drier y-o-y weather in the South was favorable for lawn & garden, auto care, and allergy products as well as store traffic. Colder weather out West during the latter part of February was favorable for Winter clearance, however, wetter weather would have dampened store traffic.


U.K. FEBRUARY 2011 SUMMARY:  February was a mild and unsettled month across the U.K. as several Atlantic systems crossed the country bringing with them mild air and showery weather. Western portions of the country saw the greatest amount of precipitation, while eastern areas of England were drier. Some of the precipitation turned wintry in the north, especially over higher ground, but any snow accumulation had minimal impact for retailers. Warmer and drier weather during the final week of the retail February was a great improvement on last year when heavy rain caused deadly flooding and travel disruptions. View the UK February 2011 Weather Summary.

Early Spring categories had much more favorable conditions this year with milder weather increasing consumer awareness that Spring will soon be at hand. Spring apparel and footwear should have experienced stronger demand than last year. Despite wetter weather in Ireland and western Great Britain, drier weather in eastern parts of southern England would have been very favorable for footfall. Meanwhile, rain accessories like slickers, wellies and umbrellas would have sold better to the west. Milder weather was an overall positive for retail sales, however, there were some negative external factors that may end up dampening results. Weak consumer confidence, rising food prices and rising petrol prices at the end of the month would have taken a bite out of the consumer's disposable income.

G-20 FEBRUARY 2011 SUMMARY: G-20 February temperatures were split with half of the countries trending warmer than last year and half trending colder. The US, Russia and much of western Europe trended milder than last year, while eastern Europe, northern Africa, much of the Middle East, Canada and much of South America trended colder. Australia couldn't catch a break this month with Tropical Cyclone Yasi impacting northern Queensland and parts of Victoria causing floods and wind damage. At landfall, the storm packed winds gusts of 177 mph and dumped 7.9-11.8'' of rain with localized higher amounts. Luckily, the storm did not make landfall on any of the highly populated coastal cities. A potent snow storm mid-month dropped over 3 feet of snow on the Korean Peninsula, making this the largest snow event ever recorded in South Korea. Flooding in west Afghanistan followed early month warmth over the country's snow packed high terrain.View G-20 Precipitation vs. Last Year Map.

Warmer weather in the US, western Europe and Russia was a positive for early Spring categories, while colder weather in western Australia and parts of South America helped to remind consumers that Autumn is on the way. Tropical Cyclone Yasi was disruptive for northern Australia, especially Melbourne. Many farms to the southeast of Melbourne suffered extensive damage due to the floods. Estimates of the total damage from Yasi are around 3.5 billion US dollars, making this the 2nd most costliest tropical cyclone to affect Australia. Flooding also took it's toll on crops in Sri Lanka (where up to 90% of the rice crop was threatened). Meanwhile, drought in eastern China continued to cause concern over crops and commodity prices.  The excessive snow in Korea brought transportation to a halt and was very disruptive for store traffic mid-month.

U.S. FEBRUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

U.K. FEBRUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

G-20 FEBRUARY 2011 BUSINESS WEATHER REPORT

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About Weather Trends International:  The global leader of actionable year-ahead business weather guidance for retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, agricultural firms, financial equity and commodity analysts.  Clients include some of the world’s most respected and successful companies like Wal-Mart, ASDA, Target, Kohl’s, AutoZone, Anheuser-Busch, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, SC Johnson, JP Morgan, Agway, Hershey’s and over a hundred fifty others.  Its business centric weather solutions and understanding of how consumers respond to the weather is used throughout organizations to help "manage the weather risk”.  Utilizing technology first developed in the early 1990s, Weather Trends International’s unique statistical math based trade secret formula forecasting methodology projects temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends by day and week a year-ahead for 720,000 locations across the globe (all 195 countries) with an industry leading 75% to 95% accuracy.  WTI is recipient of 6 business/technology awards this year:  2009 winner of the Red Herring North America technology award, 2009 winner of the American Business Award for Most Innovative Company of the Year, International Business Award for Most Innovative Company of the Year in North America and Forbes #5 Most Promising Company of the year.  Offices in Bethlehem, PA, and Bentonville, AR.  Visit http://www.wxtrends.com/ or http://www.myskeye.com/ for more information and check out our new consumer website Weather Trends 360  to see your local year-ahead weather forecast.