There will be some upside surprises in the U.S. and U.K. when retail sales are announced Thursday with the Discounters and Clubs again leading the pack.
U.S. SUMMARY: There were more positives than negatives for March retail sales that will likely help the Discounters and Clubs show higher than expected same-store sales gains when results are announced Thursday. National temperatures were both warmer than last year (64% of the U.S. was warmer than LY) and warmer than average (70% of the U.S. was warmer than average). Exceptionally favorable weather for early Spring merchandise occurred over the first full weekend of March (5th – 9th) when there were 673 record high temperatures set. The next favorable period was around St. Patrick’s Day. While precipitation was 6% less than a year ago, it was still excessively wet with flooding in parts of the Upper Midwest, Rockies and Southeast which is a negative for store traffic. National Snowfall was down 9% vs a year ago adding to the more favorable trends. With the big stock market rally in March and gasoline prices down 39% vs last year there were a lot of reasons why consumers may have done a bit more spending in March like they did in February. The big negatives are unemployment at 8.5% and the worst consumer confidence ever.
G-20 SUMMARY: It was the 4th straight month to trend colder than last year for the G-20 countries as a whole with 19 of the past 22 months trending colder year-on-year. Russia showed the greatest change toward much colder weather while Argentina showed the greatest change toward warmer Autumn weather. Colder trends across the Northern Hemisphere are big negatives for early Spring merchandise and footfall (store-traffic) but the drier global trends (16% drier than last year) are a secondary positive for footfall. The continued cold trends are the result of several factors:
- The longest solar minimum (very inactive sun means less solar radiation here on Earth) in over 100 years.
- The coldest Pacific Ocean in over 50 years with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cycle solidly in the cold phase of the 32-year cold cycle that started in 2007.
- Global sea ice which is up about 300,000 square kilometers above average (more highly reflective ice to radiate inbound solar radiation back into space before heating up the Earth).
The milder early Autumn weather in the Southern Hemisphere (South America, Central Africa and Australia) benefits non-seasonal food items and increased footfall but hurts cold seasonal category sales.
U.K. SUMMARY: The retail March was the warmest in two years (+0.8C warmer than last year) and warmer than normal (+1.2C warmer) for the UK as a whole, a plus for footfall. Precipitation amounts trended 49% less than last year and 35% below average for the month overall making it the driest retail month in two years. It was also the 3rd sunniest calendar March for the UK since records began in 1929, a big plus for footfall benefiting garden, outdoor DIY and seasonal category sales for a majority of the month. Like-for-like sales gains should improve this year for the UK despite Easter shifting into April.
About Weather Trends International: The global leader of actionable year-ahead business weather guidance for retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, agricultural firms, financial analysts and the movie industry. Clients include some of the world’s most respected and successful companies like Wal-Mart, ASDA, Target, Kohl’s, Bon-Ton, Sherwin-Williams, AutoZone, Anheuser-Busch, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, JP Morgan, The State Theatre and 100 others. Its business centric weather solutions and understanding of how consumers respond to the weather is used throughout organizations to help "manage the weather risk”. Utilizing technology first developed in the early 1990s, Weather Trends International’s unique statistical math based trade secret formula forecasting methodology projects temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends by day and week a year-ahead for 20,000 locations across the globe with an industry leading 80%+ accuracy. Offices in New York, NY, Bethlehem, PA, and Bentonville, AR. Visit http://www.wxtrends.com/ or http://www.myskeye.com/ for more information.
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