News / Business
Weather Trends International Global Commodity Summary & Outlook
2009 has been an interesting year across the agricultural and energy commodity spectrum with several markets going from historic highs to record lows in a matter of months, and intraday volatility has been no less spectacular. Uncertain forward looking views on the role of weather in the commodity complex only adds to the uncertainty. Weather Trends International has long been the world leader in providing retail sector clients with accurate strategic long range business weather expertise, and we are now demonstrating the same level of value to our clients in the commodities sector. “Michael has helped our clients save 10s of millions of dollars by being proactive with the weather and its influences on commodities as opposed to reacting short term.” said Bill Kirk, CEO.
“The numbers on the ICE May09 sugar futures chart below indicate where Weather Trends made statements in our weekly updates regarding our short and long term views on the world sugar market. The WTI views are based on an integration of information relevant to global commodity markets, including short and long range weather outlooks, emerging market research and fundamental analyses across the agriculture and energy commodity spectrum”, said Michael Ferrari, PhD.
LARGE CHART VIEW: http://blog.commodityweather.com/WTI-May_2009_ICE_Sugar_Futures_Recap.png
Here is the timeline for readers to assess our 2009 world sugar recommendations.
(1) 21 Jan: Neutral short term to constructive with May support at 12.6 to 13.1 cents.
(2) 03 Feb: Support for higher May futures (12.95-13.4); dryness in South America will start to reduce yield expectations from Brazil’s Centre-South crop.
(3) 10 Feb: Softening in short term with May expectations at 13.1-13.5.
(4) 17 Feb: Recommend buying around 12.8 as weekly view for May is 13.1-13.45.
(5) 23 Feb: Support for May in mid-13 cent range; Indian crop not off to good start.
(6) 03 Mar: Short term view is that mid 13 cent range is overpriced; recommend exiting May longs in this range and look for opportunity below 12.9 cents.
(7) 10 Mar: Stressed to look at 12.5 cents as an attractive entry for May; support for weekly range to stay between 12.75 and 13.1.
(8) 16 Mar: Lower crude supports negative moves in May sugar; 12.75 – 13.1 range.
(9) 23 Mar: Brazil pattern favorable for developing cane; short term bearishness followed by support for May between 12.9 and 13.2.
(10) 06 Apr: Signal for underpriced sugar; low 12 cent range is strong buy, and May should trade between 12.55 and 12.9.
(11) 13 Apr: The rebound occurred and any entry points in low/mid 12 cent range were likely profitable. May should stay around the 13 cent mark; July has fair value in mid 13 range.
In the coming months, Michael Ferrari, PhD, (VP of Applied Technology and Commodity Research) will be discussing the Weather Trends long range global weather outlook and putting this view in the context of the global agricultural commodity markets at several international events. Among these events are the Africa International Soft Commodities conference in London (29, 30 April) and the SugarAsia 2009 conference in New Delhi, India (2, 3 July). Please contact Weather Trends International if you would like to hear more about these or any other events where our business weather experts will be speaking.
PRESS CONTACT:
Michael Ferrari, PhD VP Applied Technology & Commodities Research
(O) 610-807-3582 (C) 484-542-0111
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About Weather Trends International: The global leader of actionable year-ahead business weather guidance for retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, agricultural firms, financial analysts and the movie industry. Clients include some of the world’s most respected and successful companies like Wal-Mart, ASDA, Target, Kohl’s, Bon-Ton, Sherwin-Williams, AutoZone, Anheuser-Busch, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, JP Morgan, Agway, Hershey’s, American Crystal Sugar and over a hundred others. Its business centric weather solutions and understanding of how consumers respond to the weather is used throughout organizations to help "manage the weather risk”. Utilizing technology first developed in the early 1990s, Weather Trends International’s unique statistical math based trade secret formula forecasting methodology projects temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends by day and week a year-ahead for 20,000 locations across the globe with an industry leading 80%+ accuracy. Offices in New York, NY, Bethlehem, PA, and Bentonville, AR. Visit http://www.wxtrends.com/ or http://www.myskeye.com/ for more information.
