WEATHER TRENDS INTERNATIONAL WEEKLY BUSINESS WEATHER ROUNDUP AND EARLY SUMMER OUTLOOK

LAST WEEK (APRIL 26 – MAY 2):  The last week of the retail April went out with a bang with 576 record high temperatures set across the country making it the 3^rd hottest end to April in 17+ years for the nation as a whole, but the all time hottest for the East Coast.  It was the second straight week to trend much warmer than last year and above average for the nation as a whole.  Sales gains for seasonal items were exceptional with strong double digit gains reported in many categories.  As the cooler weather moved in late in the week, a round of severe weather plagued the Central U.S. along with 1-5” of rain – look out, the mosquitoes are coming over the next two weeks to this region!  The hot finish to April should help some retailers exceed expectations, but we’re up against very tough comparisons to last year when retail industry same-store sales gains were +3.5% according to data from ICSC.  This was the 2^nd strongest gains in all of 2008 last year so exceeding expectations will be a very positive trend this April after months of negative sales trends for the industry.

THIS WEEK (MAY 3-9):  3^rd week in a row of hotter than last year conditions and warmer than average.  After all the rain in the Central U.S., this will make for ideal conditions for significant pest populations and high demand for insect control categories.  The heat in the Southwest and Texas will get the ants out and the wet weather further in the heartland will make mosquitoes resemble birds!  This week prior to Mother’s Day ranks in the top 5 warmest in 17+ years so demand for many seasonal categories should remain favorable, except in the Northeast.  The chart below shows that all but 5 days in May are going to trend warmer to much warmer than last year – a big plus for Spring seasonal items.  The days leading up to Mother’s Day get even more favorable.

NEXT WEEK (MAY 10-16):  The week of Mother’s Day will be the warmest in at least 5 years for the 4^th straight week to trend much warmer than last year and much warmer than average. It’s also the only week in May to likely trend drier than last year and drier than average so store traffic should be strong.

MEMORIAL DAY OUTLOOK:  The days leading up to Memorial Day are again very favorable although the pattern is likely to be stormy with periods of severe weather and heavier rainfall across much of the Eastern half of the country. 

EARLY SUMMER OUTLOOK:  Beyond the Memorial Day holiday period there is a fair amount of risk for a return to cooler and wetter trends for up to 4 weeks before a hotter period takes shape around 4^th of July.  The coolest and wettest June in 5 years will continue to benefit garden items, pest control, wiper blades, washer fluid and rainwear but will likely negatively impact hot seasonal items and overall retail sales.  So, May is much better than June for seasonal sales gains and overall retail industry same-store sales gains!!  June was the strongest retail month of the year last year (retail industry sales +4.2%) so sales will be weaker than expected this year and July 4^th heat probably won’t be enough to save the month.  Markdowns will clearly be needed in June to keep Summer inventory from mounting.

Press Contact:

Bill Kirk, CEO

bkirk@wxtrends.com