News / Business
Weather Trends International April 2009 US, UK, and G-20 Historical Weather Summaries
U.S. SUMMARY:
Temperatures for the retail April were slightly warmer than last year but ranked as the 7th warmest of the past 17+ years. Precipitation amounts were up 20% nationally making it the 7th wettest retail month of the past 17 years. However, snowfall was down 25% versus a year ago. A record breaking heat-wave that brought 1000s of new record high temperatures across the country in late April was by far the best period for stronger seasonal category sales gains.
The Northeast and Great Lakes showed the coolest trends relative to a year ago. The Pacific Northwest showed the greatest change toward warmer weather but Minneapolis was the city with the greatest change year-over-year toward much warmer weather.
Positives for retail sales would have been the slightly warmer temperatures overall, lower snowfall totals, and the record heat wave at the end of the month. Also, Easter was the warmest in several years and the three days leading up to the holiday had much warmer temperatures and 93% less snowfall. However, will be a tough comparison to last year’s strong retail industry sales month (+3.5%) which makes it more difficult to post substantially stronger gains, but same-store sales should come in on the high end of expectations. To view the full US Historical report CLICK HERE
G-20 SUMMARY:
After four straight months of colder year-on-year temperatures, April 2009 has swung to a warmer (+0.4°C) and drier (-15%) trend across the G-20 countries. The change in the trend was heavily influenced by warmer and drier weather in Western Europe. Warm and dry weather is great news for the retail sector during the Spring season as demand for warm weather categories increases dramatically. Other economic sectors including construction and agriculture also benefit from warmer Spring weather as the season starts earlier. A GDP upside surprise is not out of the question across Western Europe thanks in part to the very favorable weather. Germany showed the greatest change toward warmer weather at +3.8˚C while Turkey saw the greatest change toward colder weather at -3.5˚C. Is the change to warmer weather seen in April a sign of things to come? Several factors including a cold phase PDO, cold phase AMO, and a very quiet sun continue to point toward cooler weather, but when compared to last year which was quite cool, this year will generally be a little warmer. The image below shows the global monthly temperatures compared to last year. To view full G-20 report CLICK HERE
U.K. SUMMARY:
The four week retail April trended both warmer than last year and warmer than normal for the UK as a whole. It was the warmest retail April in two years and the 2nd warmest in at least 17 years. Precipitation amounts trended lower than last year and lower than normal for the month overall making it the driest retail April in two years. The first week of the month which was the week prior to Easter (12th) had the greatest weekly change toward warmer year-on-year weather since the beginning of February 2008. The last week of the month was the only week which trended colder than last year and colder than normal which made it the coldest final week of April in 7 years.
Warmer and drier weather compared to both last year and normal for a majority of the month would have been very favorable for footfall and sales of warm weather seasonal category items such as apparel, footwear, sun care, beverages, garden and outdoor DIY. Also, the shift of Easter back into April was another positive factor for sales. Below is a daily summary of temperatures compared to last year (bars) and high and low temperatures (lines) for the retail April. The beginning of the month was by far the strongest year-on-year period. To view full UK report CLICK HERE
Press Contacts:
Bill Kirk, CEO
bkirk@wxtrends.com
Phone (610) 807-3585
Richard Woolley, VP Operations
rwoolley@wxtrends.com
Phone (610) 807-3584
About Weather Trends International:
The global leader of actionable year-ahead business weather guidance for retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, agricultural firms, financial analysts, equity/energy/commodity traders, ski resorts and consumers. Clients include some of the worlds most respected and successful companies like Wal-Mart, ASDA, and Target, Kohl’s, Sherwin-Williams, AutoZone, Anheuser-Busch, Johnson & Johnson, SC Johnson, JP Morgan and over 100 others. Its business centric weather solutions and understanding of how consumers respond to the weather is used throughout organizations to help "manage the weather risk”. Utilizing technology first developed in the early 1990s, Weather Trends International’s unique statistical math based trade secret formula forecasting methodology projects temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends by day and week a year-ahead for 20,000+ locations across the entire globe with an industry leading 80%+ accuracy. Offices in New York, NY, Bethlehem, PA and Bentonville, AR. For more information visit http://www.wxtrends.com/ or http://www.myskeye.com/
