AccuWeather.com meteorologists have uncovered possible important roles the weather may play in the H1N1 pandemic, formerly known as the swine flu.
An El Nino is forecast by AccuWeather.com to develop this summer. El Nino produces warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean water temperatures off of Central and South America. This warm ocean current alters the weather pattern in the United States and abroad. The pattern could last through the coming winter. During a typical El Nino winter, the southern part of the United States experiences cooler- and wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern part of the nation experiences somewhat milder conditions with less snow, compared to average.
Common influenza outbreaks have flourished during the winter months when the air is generally cold and dry. There has been some evidence suggesting that influenza can survive outside the body longer under cold, dry conditions. A recent study done by Oregon State University indicated that low humidity of air alone could be a determining factor. The study suggested that year-round low humidity, such as that of the western U.S. could harbor common influenza throughout the year.
Indoor humidity levels can drop very low, especially in the winter months, even if you keep your house cool. This occurs when, for example, air at 20 degrees with a humidity of 50 percent is then warmed to 70 degrees. The humidity level can drop to 10 to 20 percent. Your house can still be very dry even during a rain or snowstorm in January.
It is not known whether the H1N1 virus or other forms of influenza survive in the air by itself, or via transport of moisture droplets. Strong, very dangerous strains such as H1N1 have been known to ignore the trends of common influenza.
Regardless of whether the upcoming winter in the southern hemisphere, or the distant winter in the northern hemisphere is mild or harsh, winter months typically have more people indoors in colder climates. Interestingly for the Southern U.S. this winter, anticipated rainy conditions may keep more Southerners indoors for longer periods of time than average. If you are confined indoors for long periods of time with someone who has the flu, you may be more likely to contract the illness.
There are other factors in the weather that may also contribute to the spread and pulses of influenza, including the H1N1 virus strains. AccuWeather.com will have more on this later.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologists John Feerick and Alan Reppert.
To learn more or discuss with a forecaster, please contact:
Justin Roberti
Roberti@AccuWeather.com
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