Weather Trends International 2009 Hurricane Outlook

Weather Trends International’s proprietary hurricane technology indicates that the total number of named storms in 2009 will be fewer than the past two seasons which had 17 named storms in 2007 and 16 last year.  “The model indicates at the most 13 named storms, but uncertainty due to the upcoming Fall status of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) warrants a forecast range of 10-13 named storms; six of them will become hurricanes with three becoming major hurricanes” said Rich Woolley, VP of Operations.  The highest risk areas are along the Southeast coastal U.S. from Florida to North Carolina with lower risks for the Gulf Coast.  “This outlook has implications for numerous commodities, the most important being natural gas.  As June natural gas futures are now trading in the mid $3 (MMBbtu) range, a less active season coupled with higher reserves could exert some additional downward pressure on the Jun-Jul contracts.  Last week’s Department of Energy stocks report showed supply being 22% higher than the 5 year average” said Michael Ferrari, PhD and Vice President of Commodities.  Retailers looking to pre-position storm related merchandise should consider Florida and North Carolina this year.  

A number of factors this year point toward a less active season.  Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are one of the dominant factors that influence the number of named storms in any given season.  The long term cycle of temperature changes in the Atlantic Ocean is called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and since 1995, the AMO has been in a positive (warm) phase which corresponds to an increased frequency of tropical storms from 1995 to 2005.  For the first time since 1994 the AMO has been trending negative (much cooler) during the first 4 months of the year which typically results in fewer named tropical storms.  Since 1950, when the AMO was in the negative cold phase, the number of named tropical systems in a season averaged nine storms.  

Another factor lurking beneath the ocean waves this Hurricane Season will be the potential for a developing El Nino (warming of the Pacific Ocean).  Numerous studies have shown that during El Nino years the number of named tropical storms in the Atlantic tends to run below average, while the past two seasons have been La Nina events (cold Pacific Ocean) which correlate to higher activity in the Atlantic.  If an El Nino were to form later this year it could bring an early end to the Atlantic Hurricane Season as upper level wind shear makes development less likely with weaker storms.  A word of caution to those living along the coast, it only takes ONE hurricane to bring billions of dollars in property losses and unnecessary loss of life.  Remember that Hurricane Andrew was one of the most powerful hurricanes in the 20th century to make landfall in the U.S. and that occurred in a below average season when the AMO was in a negative phase.

Press Contacts:

Richard Woolley
VP of Operations, Weather Trends Intl.
(O) 610-807-3584
rwoolley@wxtrends.com

Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP of Applied Technology& Commodity Research, Weather Trends Intl.
(O) 610-807-3582
mferrari@wxtrends.com

About Weather Trends International:
The global leader of actionable year-ahead business weather guidance for retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceutical companies, agricultural firms, financial analysts, equity/energy/commodity traders, ski resorts and consumers.  Clients include some of the worlds most respected and successful companies like Wal-Mart, ASDA, and Target, Kohl’s, Sherwin-Williams, AutoZone, Anheuser-Busch, Johnson & Johnson, SC Johnson, JP Morgan and over 100 others.  Its business centric weather solutions and understanding of how consumers respond to the weather is used throughout organizations to help "manage the weather risk”.  Utilizing technology first developed in the early 1990s, Weather Trends International’s unique statistical math based trade secret formula forecasting methodology projects temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends by day and week a year-ahead for 20,000+ locations across the entire globe with an industry leading 80%+ accuracy.  Offices in New York, NY, Bethlehem, PA and Bentonville, AR.  For more information visit http://www.wxtrends.com/ or http://www.myskeye.com/