BMI View: Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry, which was worth US$1.40bn in 2010, is fairly typical for South Asia. Growth is high, but per-capita spending remains low. The market is also characterised by the ability of those on high incomes to purchase expensive patented drugs, while the vast majority of the population make do with frequently sub-standard over-the-counter (OTC) preparations. Local pharmaceutical companies and those multinationals with manufacturing facilities in Bangladesh cater for approximately 95% of domestic demand. Of the 49 UN-decreed Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Bangladesh is the only one that is nearly self-sufficient in terms of pharmaceutical production.
Headline Expenditure Projections
BMI Economic View: Final figures for FY2009/10 showed that real GDP growth in Bangladesh came in at a healthy 5.8%, marginally down from the initial estimate of 6.0%. These latest figures have not led to a revision of BMI’s below-consensus FY2010/11 real GDP forecast of 5.6%, as we maintain our view that private consumption will under-perform this year as remittance growth remains flat and inflation continues to pick up. The country therefore appears to be heading towards a more balanced path to growth. In the case of the pharmaceutical sector, increased wealth should translate into greater out-ofpocket spending by consumers and a greater proportion of public funds being directed to healthcare projects, especially among the poor.
BMI Political View: The Bangladesh government is committed to expanding access to medical services in general and pharmaceuticals in particular. Under the constitution of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (amended May 17 2004), the state regards ‘raising the level of nutrition and the improvement of public health’ as one of its primary duties. Although healthcare is mainly provided through government-run hospitals or private clinics, the country’s state-run healthcare facilities are oversubscribed, short-staffed and lacking equipment, especially those outside of the large cities. Nevertheless, efforts are being made to improve healthcare services.
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