BMI View: While certain aspects of Bulgaria's law on medicinal products in human medicine have negative implications for drugmakers operating in the country, we maintain our view that the pharmaceutical market looks set for high single-figure growth over the long term. The market's attractiveness is somewhat limited by its size and low per-capita expenditure, but BMI believes elevated growth rates, including demand for innovative medicines, makes the country an appealing target for multinational drugmakers.
Browse All: Pharmaceutical Market Report
Headline Expenditure Projections
Business Environment Rating: Bulgaria’s Pharmaceutical market and Healthcare
Business Environment Ratings (BERs) remains stable in our latest analysis. Its score is relatively unchanged at 50.3 in Q411, down from 50.4 in Q311, due to a minimal revision to the Country Risk subcomponent score. Although in BMI’s BER ranking matrix, Bulgaria has recovered somewhat and is now ranked 13th, up from its previous position of 14th, as a result of a downward revision to Serbia.
BMI Economic View: Bulgaria's economic recovery will continue to be primarily export-led, driving economic expansion to our forecast of 2.7% this year. As such, revised data released by the statistics institute that shows Q111 real GDP grew 3.4% over Q110, with exports increasing by 56.2% year-onyear (y-o-y) over the same period, is supportive of our forecast. We forecast domestic demand staging only a moderate recovery in line with the improving economic situation facing the consumer.
BMI Political View: We maintain our view that Bulgaria's Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party will maintain strong popular support in 2011 and may receive a slight boost from recent anti-Islamist incidents involving the National Union Attack Party. Moreover, our expectation of a sustained economic recovery and improvement in the labour market will further bolster popular support for GERB.
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