U.S. hurricane season seen as less active than 2005 according to government forecasters

With predictions of seven to nine hurricanes expected to form, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has slightly adjusted their earlier forecast. In May the NOAA believed the season could produce eight to ten storms gaining hurricane strength.

Of those seven to nine hurricanes three or four could be classified as a “major” threat to the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. NOOA believes that there could be twelve to fifteen named storms during the season.

To be classified a tropical storm and be designated by name winds must reach a sustained 39 miles per hour. When a storm develops an eye and maintains wind strength of 74 miles per hour it becomes classified as a hurricane. At this stage they are capable of significant damage. Major hurricanes are typically defined when speeds of 111 miles per hour are maintained and the damage that results can be devastating.

In 2005 the U.S. was hit with a record four hurricanes, including Katrina, which killed 1,300 people and caused over $80 billion in damages to the Gulf Coast region.

The absence of La Nina, characterized as the unusual cooling of Pacific Ocean surface temperature, has been attributed to the reduction in early season storms. This year has seen three storms designated by name, last year nine storms had that attribute by early August.

NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher recognized those figures but cautioned, “conditions will be favorable for above-normal activity for the rest of this season so we are not off the hook by any means.” 

Hurricane season ends November 30.